🇮🇳 India vs 🇵🇰 Pakistan, 🇧🇩 Bangladesh, and 🇨🇳 China — Geopolitical Overview

The relationships between India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and China are complex, shaped by historical tensions, geopolitical rivalries, and shifting regional dynamics. Below is a comment on recent developments and the broader context of their relations, based on current trends and regional interactions.
India and Bangladesh have historically shared strong ties, particularly during the tenure of former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who fostered close security and economic cooperation with India. However, since her ouster in August 2024 following a student-led uprising, India-Bangladesh relations have deteriorated significantly. The interim government led by Muhammad Yunus has pivoted toward closer ties with China and Pakistan, raising concerns in New Delhi about losing influence in a key neighbor. Bangladesh’s growing economic reliance on China, its largest trading partner with $24 billion in bilateral trade in 2024 (mostly Chinese exports), and new military cooperation, including potential Chinese investment in strategic infrastructure like the Lalmonirhat airbase near India’s sensitive “Chicken’s Neck” corridor, are seen as direct challenges to India’s regional dominance. Additionally, anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh has spiked due to perceptions of India’s support for Hasina’s authoritarian regime, unresolved water-sharing disputes, and restrictive visa policies, further straining ties.
Pakistan and Bangladesh, historically estranged since Bangladesh’s independence from Pakistan in 1971 (with India’s support), are now seeing a thaw in relations. Pakistan has capitalized on Bangladesh’s political shift, with high-level diplomatic engagements, including a planned visit by Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar to Dhaka in April 2025, the first since 2012. Military talks have also intensified, with Bangladesh expressing interest in acquiring Pakistan’s JF-17 Thunder fighter jets, co-developed with China. This warming of ties, coupled with Bangladesh’s easing of visa and trade restrictions for Pakistan, is perceived in India as part of a broader strategy to counterbalance New Delhi’s influence, potentially forming a China-Pakistan-Bangladesh axis that could encircle India strategically.
China’s role is pivotal, as it seeks to expand its influence in South Asia through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and strategic partnerships. Beijing has deepened its engagement with Bangladesh, offering over $1 billion in investments and military cooperation since the interim government took power. China’s growing naval presence in the Bay of Bengal and development of Bangladeshi ports like Chittagong and Mongla align with its “String of Pearls” strategy to encircle India. Simultaneously, China’s long-standing alliance with Pakistan, bolstered by projects like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and recent satellite support during India-Pakistan clashes, strengthens Pakistan’s position against India. However, China’s relations with India show signs of cautious improvement, with recent de-escalation along the Ladakh border and diplomatic engagements between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping at the BRICS summit in 2023, though underlying tensions over border disputes and regional influence persist.
India faces a complex challenge: its historical influence in South Asia is waning as Bangladesh tilts toward China and Pakistan, driven by domestic anti-India sentiment and strategic hedging. India’s unwavering support for Hasina has backfired, leaving it with limited leverage over Bangladesh’s new political forces, such as the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami, which China has proactively engaged. To counter this, India must recalibrate its approach, focusing on people-to-people ties, resolving water-sharing disputes, and offering competitive economic and defense partnerships to regain trust in Bangladesh. Meanwhile, India-Pakistan tensions, particularly over Kashmir, continue to shape the region’s security dynamics, with China’s indirect support for Pakistan adding complexity.
In summary, the evolving relationships reflect a delicate balance of power in South Asia, with Bangladesh emerging as a critical swing state navigating between India, China, and Pakistan. India’s strategic missteps, particularly its over-reliance on Hasina, have allowed China and Pakistan to gain ground, potentially reshaping the region’s geopolitical landscape. However, opportunities for India to mend ties with Bangladesh through diplomacy and economic engagement remain, provided it adopts a more inclusive and pragmatic approach.
Note: The situation is fluid, and these dynamics may shift with upcoming diplomatic engagements, such as the BIMSTEC summit in 2025. For the latest updates, checking platforms like X or news outlets like India Today and the Atlantic Council could provide further insights. If you’d like me to analyze specific aspects (e.g., economic ties, military developments, or a particular country’s perspective)

Article written by  with the help of AI Grok